Current economic situa­tion: stabi­lity and challenges

The most important findings from the presen­ta­tion by our macroe­co­nomic expert Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti on 13.12.2024 summa­rized for you.
Grafik zeigt das globale BIP Wachstum (GDP Growth) seit dem ersten Quartal 2022 bis zum dritten Quartal 2024.

Global growth remains stable

Despite economic uncer­tain­ties, global growth is robust. Global forecasts indicate that the economy will remain stable, even if there are regional diffe­rences.

The chart shows global economic growth since the first quarter of 2022. 2022 and 2023 were still heavily impacted by the corona­virus pandemic. As can be seen, the situa­tion has stabi­lized in 2024.

Infla­tion has largely norma­lized

In many count­ries, infla­tion has fallen signi­fi­cantly compared to the highs of recent years.

Die Grafik zeigt die Inflationszahlen der OECD Länder von 2019 bis 2024. Auf der Grafik ist der Anteil Länder ersichtlich, die ihr Inflationsziel erreichen und wie viele darüber sind.

Infla­tio­nary pressure remains

In around 40% of OECD count­ries, however, infla­tion remains above the target value of 2%. A parti­cu­larly promi­nent example is the USA, where the core infla­tion rate has remained stagnant at 3.3% since June.

Several factors are respon­sible for this:

  • Labor shortages are leading to rising wages and ongoing cost pressure.
  • Incre­a­sing protec­tionism is affec­ting trade and making supply chains more expen­sive.
  • High budget deficits are exacer­ba­ting the economic situa­tion and driving up infla­tio­nary pressure.

The role of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025

A central point of the discus­sion was the role of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming year. The Fed is facing a landmark decision:

  1. Will it tolerate the higher level of infla­tion?
    In this case, the Fed could gradu­ally cut interest rates further into the “neutral” range and thus support economic growth.
  2. Will it stick to its infla­tion target?
    Alter­na­tively, the Fed could continue to act restric­tively and keep interest rates high in order to bring infla­tion back to the target of 2% – with the possible conse­quence of slowing economic growth.
Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC, United States, FED

Outlook and conclu­sion

Develo­p­ments in the USA will not only affect the US economy, but also have global impli­ca­tions. The change of govern­ment could bring additional momentum and uncer­tainty to the markets.

It will be intere­sting to see what course the Fed will take: Stabi­li­zing growth or consist­ently fighting infla­tion?

What does this mean for investors? A diver­si­fied portfolio and forward-looking risk manage­ment remain essen­tial, says our Chief Invest­ment Officer, Simon Lutz.

Status: 17.12.2024

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Simon Lutz
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Disclaimer

The state­ments and infor­ma­tion in this publi­ca­tion have been compiled by Tareno AG to the best of its knowledge, in part from external (publicly acces­sible) sources which Tareno AG considers to be reliable, for infor­ma­tion purposes only. This publi­ca­tion is not the result of a finan­cial analysis. Tareno AG and its employees are not liable for incor­rect or incom­plete infor­ma­tion or for losses or lost profits resul­ting from the use of infor­ma­tion and the conside­ra­tion of opinions expressed. The state­ments and infor­ma­tion do not consti­tute a solici­ta­tion or invita­tion, offer or recom­men­da­tion to buy or sell any invest­ment instru­ments or to engage in any other transac­tions.

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