Tareno View January 2026

Growth remains, favorites rotate

The global economy has also proven to be remarkably resilient in 2025. Despite all the prophecies of doom, the global economy is growing steadily, driven by a powerful triad of expansive fiscal policy, looser monetary policy and technological progress. This has been a blessing for investors: Equity markets and mixed mandates once again delivered pleasing returns. However, past success is no guarantee for the future. As the economy gains momentum and growth broadens, opportunities are shifting away from the celebrated winners of recent years towards neglected segments. In this issue, we shed light on why active selection will be crucial in 2026 and how portfolios can be set up to be robust and generate strong returns in different scenarios.

Macroeconomic environment: fuel for the global economy

Although the geopolitical and economic policy shifts emanating from the USA in 2025 kept the world on tenterhooks, they hardly left a mark on the hard currency of global growth. Adjusted for inflation, the global economy grew by a solid 3%, as in previous years. For the current year, the signs are not only pointing to a continuation, but to an acceleration. Three powerful forces are working in unison here:

Expansionary fiscal policy as a permanent condition

Government spending remains at an exceptionally high level globally. In the USA, tax breaks and industrial policy are causing a deficit of around 8%. At the same time, deregulation and a leaner state apparatus should mobilize private investment and free up productivity. Europe is following with a time lag, but with increasing determination. The German investment program in particular is now taking effect and providing impetus in the areas of armaments, energy and infrastructure. China completes the picture as the third major player. With a deficit also close to 8%, Beijing is stabilizing the domestic economy and counteracting deflationary tendencies. Taken together, these fiscal forces form a robust foundation for sustained global growth of around 3%.

Monetary policy under fiscal pressure

In view of this major fiscal situation, a restrictive monetary policy would traditionally be appropriate in order to avoid overheating. However, the reality of high debt levels dictates a different logic: central banks are under pressure to keep financing costs low. Even though the majority of interest rate cuts may be behind us, the compass of most central banks continues to point in the direction of easing. In addition to cutting interest rates, the US Federal Reserve recently switched from withdrawing liquidity to injecting it. Monetary policy is thus once again becoming an ally of growth and the capital markets.

Technology as a productivity turbo

Around a third of US growth in the past year is directly attributable to investments in AI infrastructure. Even higher budgets are available for 2026, and industry experts are forecasting a multiplication of computing capacities in the coming years. However, the decisive factor is when these investments will pay off. We are seeing companies successfully integrating AI in more and more sectors. Productivity gains are already measurable, particularly in software development, industrial automation and biotechnology. 2026 is likely to be the year in which these effects are broadly reflected in company profits and overall economic productivity for the first time.

Market commentary: The renaissance of market breadth

In 2025, the world equity index recorded double-digit growth for the third year in a row. Encouragingly, mixed mandates also enjoyed above-average gains. The relative strength of Europe compared to the USA, reinforced by the depreciation of the US dollar, was remarkable.