Macroeconomic trends and geopolitical risks for investors
Global economic situation: stability and change
The moderate but very stable growth of the last two years is likely to continue in the coming years. Despite this apparent constancy, some shifts can be observed beneath the surface. While industry has weakened in recent years and growth has been driven by services, growth this year is likely to be more balanced between the two sectors. At regional level, the strong growth in the USA is expected to slow down and the weak economy in the EU is expected to improve.
The Swiss economy is slowly recovering
Switzerland has had two lean years. Per capita growth was even negative in the last two years. The economy has been supported by resilient consumption and tourists who are keen to travel. Growth is likely to improve in 2025 and 2026 thanks to a revival in investment and exports. The Swiss economy should receive support from the Swiss franc. The franc has depreciated in real terms over the past two years, not least due to interest rate cuts. The SNB’s interest rate cut to 0.25% last week should bring the current interest rate cycle to a close.
Increasing risks in the USA
US inflation remains too high and there is no improvement in sight, meaning that the new US government’s plans are ill-timed. The misguided US government is steering its economy towards recession through irresponsible fiscal policy, protectionist trade policies and political uncertainty. The costs of these policies are likely to soon become apparent in the form of lower growth and higher inflation. It should not be long before US voters and the stock markets pay the price and hopefully lead to a rethink by the US leadership. Until then, the risks appear to be higher in the short term. Excitement is therefore guaranteed!
Outlook and conclusion
Stable economic data does not conceal growing tensions – the current uncertainty cannot be overlooked, especially in the USA. For the global financial markets, 2025 is a year of selective opportunities and increased vigilance. For investors, a diversified portfolio and forward-looking risk management remain essential, says our Chief Investment Officer, Simon Lutz.
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