Chart of the Month April: The market suddenly changed sides of the playing field

The perfect forecast rarely wins on the finan­cial markets. Rather, the ability to recognize market changes at an early stage and adapt more quickly than other market parti­ci­pants is crucial. The sport of tennis provides a fitting metaphor: successful players do not antici­pate every shot perfectly. The decisive factor is that they recognize changes in the speed and dynamics of a rally early on and adapt their positio­ning accor­dingly. The approach of our Tareno Hawk-Eye certi­fi­cate follows precisely this principle.
Grafik die zeigt, dass im April der Halbleiter- und Technologiesektor mit +38% gegenüber dem Weltindex den Energiesektor mit -17% gegenüber dem Weltindex massiv übertroffen hat. Das hat unser Hawk Eye Ansatz frühzeitig erkannt und entsprechend investiert.

Early signals of a new market rotation

The first clear rotation signals were already evident on the markets at the end of March. Despite rising oil prices, energy stocks reacted incre­a­singly weakly, while at the same time semicon­ductor and techno­logy stocks developed new relative strength. As a result, the Hawk-Eye reduced its weighting in the energy sector and increased its positions in semicon­ductor and techno­logy stocks. The most important drivers included Intel, Marvell Techno­logy, Dell Techno­lo­gies and Nebius.

Since the market low at the end of March, the semicon­ductor sector has outper­formed the global share index by around +38 %, while energy shares have under­per­formed by around 16 %.

The Hawk-Eye benefited from this develo­p­ment early on and achieved a perfor­mance of just under +14% in April.

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Is the next market rotation already underway?

In the meantime, euphoria and technical overex­pan­sion in the techno­logy sector are incre­a­sing notice­ably. At the same time, commo­di­ties, precious metals and biotech­no­logy are showing the first signs of stabi­lization.

It remains to be seen whether the next major market rotation has already begun. However, the strength of the Hawk-Eye approach in the past has often been to identify relative strength at an early stage, parti­cu­larly in such transi­tion phases. This is because the biggest market movements often start quietly.

You can find out which commo­dity and metal stocks have recently been restruc­tured in the current facts­heet.

Download facts­heet

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Do you have any questions about the Chart of the Month or would you like to find out more about our Hawk-Eye strategy? Our fund manager, Manuel Schmedler, looks forward to hearing from you.

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared for marke­ting and infor­ma­tion purposes and consti­tutes neither an offer nor a solici­ta­tion to subscribe to or buy or sell units in this invest­ment fund. It does not consti­tute invest­ment advice. Only the current fund documents (in parti­cular the prospectus and KID) are autho­ri­ta­tive. Past perfor­mance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Images: Marijke Vosmeer, Luzia Hunziker, Jürg Kaufmann, Istock, Unsplash / Graphics: Tareno AG / Bloom­berg