Chart of the Month April: The market suddenly changed sides of the playing field

The perfect forecast rarely wins on the financial markets. Rather, the ability to recognize market changes at an early stage and adapt more quickly than other market participants is crucial. The sport of tennis provides a fitting metaphor: successful players do not anticipate every shot perfectly. The decisive factor is that they recognize changes in the speed and dynamics of a rally early on and adapt their positioning accordingly. The approach of our Tareno Hawk-Eye certificate follows precisely this principle.
Grafik die zeigt, dass im April der Halbleiter- und Technologiesektor mit +38% gegenüber dem Weltindex den Energiesektor mit -17% gegenüber dem Weltindex massiv übertroffen hat. Das hat unser Hawk Eye Ansatz frühzeitig erkannt und entsprechend investiert.

Early signals of a new market rotation

The first clear rotation signals were already evident on the markets at the end of March. Despite rising oil prices, energy stocks reacted increasingly weakly, while at the same time semiconductor and technology stocks developed new relative strength. As a result, the Hawk-Eye reduced its weighting in the energy sector and increased its positions in semiconductor and technology stocks. The most important drivers included Intel, Marvell Technology, Dell Technologies and Nebius.

Since the market low at the end of March, the semiconductor sector has outperformed the global share index by around +38 %, while energy shares have underperformed by around 16 %.

The Hawk-Eye benefited from this development early on and achieved a performance of just under +14% in April.

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Is the next market rotation already underway?

In the meantime, euphoria and technical overexpansion in the technology sector are increasing noticeably. At the same time, commodities, precious metals and biotechnology are showing the first signs of stabilization.

It remains to be seen whether the next major market rotation has already begun. However, the strength of the Hawk-Eye approach in the past has often been to identify relative strength at an early stage, particularly in such transition phases. This is because the biggest market movements often start quietly.

You can find out which commodity and metal stocks have recently been restructured in the current factsheet.

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Do you have any questions about the Chart of the Month or would you like to find out more about our Hawk-Eye strategy? Our fund manager, Manuel Schmedler, looks forward to hearing from you.

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared for marketing and information purposes and constitutes neither an offer nor a solicitation to subscribe to or buy or sell units in this investment fund. It does not constitute investment advice. Only the current fund documents (in particular the prospectus and KID) are authoritative. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Images: Marijke Vosmeer, Luzia Hunziker, Jürg Kaufmann, Istock, Unsplash / Graphics: Tareno AG / Bloomberg