Prof. Brunet­ti’s assess­ments with a focus on US economic policy and government­debt

Last Friday, 26.9.2025, our Advisory Board, Prof. Dr. Aymo Brunetti, presented his assess­ment of the current macroe­co­nomic situa­tion to the Tareno team. He paid parti­cular atten­tion to US economic policy and govern­ment debt.
Grafik-1_Brunetti_Finanzratgeber_28

Global economic situa­tion

The global economy will continue its moderate growth of recent years in 2025. Despite the subdued pace, the unemployment rate will remain low as the labor market reacts less strongly to economic weakne­sses due to demogra­phic trends.

The infla­tion trend in Switz­er­land is unspec­ta­cular: core infla­tion is in the ideal range. Price trends in the USA, on the other hand, are a cause for concern. Infla­tion there is well above the central bank’s target and has even accele­rated recently. Against this backdrop, Prof. Brunetti believes that the Fed’s latest interest rate cut is not justi­fied.

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US economic policy

The current US admini­stra­tion is creating an unusually high level of economic policy uncer­tainty. This is unsett­ling compa­nies, dampe­ning their willing­ness to invest and weake­ning the growth-promo­ting impetus of the pro-business measures. The true costs of this policy are only likely to be felt in the long term, e.g. through rising infla­tion expec­ta­tions. This is because the infla­tio­nary policy mix keeps infla­tio­nary pressure high. This is also reflected in the so-called core infla­tion rate, which is stubbornly holding at 4% and is there­fore well above the pre-crisis level.

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National debt

Public debt also remains a risk factor. Since the turn of the millen­nium, public debt has more than doubled in relation to economic output in many count­ries. A trend reversal is not in sight. Prof. Brunetti sees finan­cial repres­sion as the most likely solution. Among other things, the state is forcing a redis­tri­bu­tion from savers to its own benefit through capital controls. Tangible assets (shares, gold, Bitcoin) are much better protected against this develo­p­ment than nominal assets (liqui­dity, bonds).

Grafik-4_Brunetti_Finanzratgeber_28

Outlook

For the coming years, Prof. Brunetti expects the moderate global growth of around 3% to continue and infla­tio­nary pressure in the USA to persist. Oppor­tu­ni­ties will arise from techno­lo­gical progress, parti­cu­larly in the field of artifi­cial intel­li­gence. This could signi­fi­cantly increase produc­ti­vity. In contrast to previous innova­tions, this time it is likely to be adapted more quickly across the board, which means that the positive effects could be reflected earlier in the macroe­co­nomic data.

Portrait Simon Lutz

Conclu­sion

Our Chief Invest­ment Officer, Simon Lutz, sees Prof. Brunet­ti’s assess­ment as confir­ma­tion of the forward-looking orien­ta­tion of our invest­ment policy.

  • Govern­ment bonds are avoided.
  • The US dollar risk is delibera­tely kept low.
  • Equities and private market invest­ments form the basis for long-term capital growth.
  • Gold and Bitcoin serve as a store of value and diver­si­fi­ca­tion building blocks.

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Simon Lutz
Chief Invest­ment Officer
s.​lutz@​tareno.​ch

 

Disclaimer

The state­ments and infor­ma­tion in this publi­ca­tion have been compiled by Tareno AG to the best of its knowledge, in part from external (publicly acces­sible) sources which Tareno AG considers to be reliable, for infor­ma­tion purposes only. This publi­ca­tion is not the result of a finan­cial analysis. Tareno AG and its employees are not liable for incor­rect or incom­plete infor­ma­tion or for losses or lost profits resul­ting from the use of infor­ma­tion and the conside­ra­tion of opinions expressed. The state­ments and infor­ma­tion do not consti­tute a solici­ta­tion or invita­tion, offer or recom­men­da­tion to buy or sell any invest­ment instru­ments or to engage in any other transac­tions.

Nor do they consti­tute a specific invest­ment proposal or other advice on legal, tax or other issues. A positive return on an invest­ment in the past is no guarantee of a positive return in the future. The state­ments, infor­ma­tion and opinions expressed herein are current only as of the date of this document and are subject to change at any time.

Dupli­ca­tion or repro­duc­tion of this publi­ca­tion, even in part, is not permitted without the written consent of Tareno AG. The “Guide­lines to ensure the indepen­dence of finan­cial analysis” of the Swiss Bankers Associa­tion do not apply. [Images: IStock, Shutter­stock, Pixabay, Unsplash. Origi­nals: Marijke Vosmeer, Charts: Tareno AG]