Simon Lutz in an inter­view with FuW: “Small-cap stocks now have strong upside poten­tial”

Tareno’s chief invest­ment officer recom­mends revie­wing portfolio weightings at the start of the year. He says it makes sense to reallo­cate holdings from U.S. tech stocks to the health­care sector and small-cap stocks.
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Anyone who has been invested in U.S. techno­logy stocks for some time should reduce the weight of these stocks in their portfolio, says Simon Lutz, Chief Invest­ment Officer at Tareno. He conti­nues to view the domestic stock market as attrac­tive. Small-cap stocks, in parti­cular, are expected to offer strong upside poten­tial across all markets this year. Founded in 2000, Tareno—with appro­xi­m­ately forty employees and 3.3 billion Swiss francs in assets under management—is one of Switzerland’s largest indepen­dent asset managers.

Mr. Lutz, in our last conver­sa­tion a year ago, you advocated for a “home bias” among Swiss investors, arguing that the domestic stock market should be favored. What is your advice as we begin 2026?

Home bias conti­nues to make sense for Swiss investors, especi­ally given the current geopo­li­tical environ­ment. For one thing, the Swiss stock market offers high-quality oppor­tu­ni­ties across many sectors. Further­more, the domestic market is attrac­tively valued compared to other stock markets—particularly U.S. stocks—but also relative to its own histo­rical perfor­mance.

Given the current environ­ment, the importance of global portfolio diver­si­fi­ca­tion shouldn’t be undere­sti­mated, should it?

Absolutely. Investors should aim for global diver­si­fi­ca­tion because not all sectors are adequa­tely repre­sented in Switz­er­land, and diver­si­fi­ca­tion improves the portfolio’s risk-return profile.

Which sectors do you feel are missing in Switz­er­land, leading to foreign stocks gaining traction?

This prima­rily refers to the techno­logy sector, where our exposure in Switz­er­land is relatively limited. We have a few techno­logy-related compa­nies here, but most of the action takes place in the U.S. In principle, it certainly makes sense to have a substan­tial portion of the portfolio invested in U.S. techno­logy stocks. At the same time, however, I must put this state­ment into perspec­tive: The U.S. tech sector has delivered excep­tio­nally strong perfor­mance over the past few years, valua­tions are high, and market concen­tra­tion has increased. We there­fore recom­mend rebalan­cing the portfolio in this area—that is, reducing the weighting to restore the initial alloca­tion.

Are you recom­men­ding reducing the weight of tech stocks purely for diver­si­fi­ca­tion purposes?

Exactly. We don’t doubt the sector’s future perfor­mance or its earnings poten­tial; rather, we’re making this recom­men­da­tion with an eye toward risk manage­ment across the entire portfolio.

What would a neutral weighting of tech stocks look like in a global equity portfolio?

In a global equity index, the MSCI World, the weighting of tech-related stocks is around 40%—a signi­fi­cant concen­tra­tion risk. We consider an alloca­tion of 25 to 30% to be more reasonable.

And which sectors would you add to your portfolio after reducing your exposure to tech stocks?

That would be health­care stocks in the domestic market. There are several attrac­tive compa­nies in this sector here in Germany, and we’re already invested in them. The health­care sector currently accounts for only about 10% of the global stock index; we would aim for a weighting of 15 to 20% in the equity portfolio.

Can you name another segment of the market that you would be more likely to increase your exposure to?

In our view, small- and mid-cap stocks are likely to gain greater weight. Valua­tions for large-cap stocks have reached the upper end of the range, but valua­tions for small- and mid-cap stocks are generally below the histo­rical average across all regions. In addition, earnings growth is likely to continue sprea­ding and provide a boost to smaller stocks. This segment is also benefiting dispro­por­tio­na­tely from central banks’ interest rate cuts, the full impact of which has not yet been felt.

Can you name specific compa­nies whose stocks you consider attrac­tive?

Two names stand out—both are small-cap compa­nies in the domestic health­care sector, so they meet both criteria at once. These would be the dental company Strau­mann and the contract pharmaceu­tical manufac­turer Siegfried.

Emerging-market stocks are often considered promi­sing, not least because of the weak dollar. Is this also a good option for Swiss investors?

We’re invested in emerging markets, in part because this allows us to achieve additional diver­si­fi­ca­tion. Further­more, we shouldn’t forget Japan—or Asia in general—as an attrac­tive market. Last year, the stock markets in Taiwan and South Korea also delivered strong perfor­mance. Despite a strong year for Asian stock markets in 2025, there is still plenty of poten­tial. Economic growth is solid, and valua­tions are starting from a lower level than in many Western count­ries. The weak dollar is certainly helping, and higher commo­dity prices are generally good for emerging markets as well.

In your opinion, what is a reasonable weighting for emerging market stocks in a portfolio?

It’s around 5%.

What about the geogra­phical break­down?

Switz­er­land accounts for about one-third of our portfolio. The U.S. also accounts for about 30%. The remainder is spread across Europe, Japan, and emerging markets.

However, the struc­tural appre­cia­tion of the Swiss franc poses a risk for foreign invest­ments, as currency movements erode returns.

It is indeed diffi­cult for investors in Swiss francs; the appre­cia­tion of the domestic currency can throw a wrench in their plans. For example, the S&P 500 rose by over 17% last year, but when calcu­lated in Swiss francs, the gain was just over 3%.

Will the dollar’s weakness continue?

Further dollar weakness is likely, though not to the same extent as last year. We expect a more controlled depre­cia­tion of the green­back, as it remains overva­lued. However, we have been hedging the dollar’s currency risk for years, inclu­ding on the equity side. Last year, this was extre­mely helpful and reduced volati­lity.

What percen­tage of their U.S. equity exposure do they hedge?

Strate­gi­cally, we hedge about half of it.

What is your opinion on artifi­cial intelligence—boom or bubble?

AI is a struc­tural invest­ment trend that will continue for many years to come. Expan­ding the neces­sary compu­ting capacity will remain a key issue. Compa­nies respon­sible for building and opera­ting these data centers will benefit from this. And, of course, the entire semicon­ductor industry as well. In a subse­quent wave, we see poten­tial among end users, who will then be able to reduce costs and increase produc­ti­vity. Compa­nies in the software, industrial automa­tion, health­care, and logistics sectors will be parti­cu­larly in demand here. Names like ABB, Kühne+Nagel, Roche, SAP, and Siemens come to mind.

There is cautious optimism regar­ding the European economy, prima­rily thanks to the large fiscal stimulus package in Germany. Has this already been factored into stock prices?

There are still concerns about whether the announced invest­ment programs will actually be imple­mented. That’s often where things fall short in Europe. In addition, the compe­ti­ti­ve­ness of European compa­nies has suffered. However, if the recovery in the industrial sector takes hold, it could signi­fi­cantly boost profits and drive valua­tions higher. Thus, the outper­for­mance of Europe that we observed last year could very well continue. Further­more, small-cap stocks in Europe are still attrac­tively valued.

What do you think of alter­na­tive invest­ments?

Alter­na­tive invest­ments are playing an incre­a­singly important role in our asset alloca­tion. In 2025, we increased their weighting in the overall portfolio from 12% to 17%, and this expan­sion occurred prima­rily in private-market invest­ments. Here, we are focusing on private equity and infras­truc­ture. So many struc­tural trends—the energy transi­tion, high govern­ment debt, digita­lization, and the expan­sion of data centers—are driving infras­truc­ture invest­ments. We also believe it makes sense to rebalance our gold holdings to the strategic alloca­tion due to the strong rally. We have invested appro­xi­m­ately 6% of the total portfolio in this precious metal. Crypto­cur­ren­cies account for 2% of the portfolio.

Source: Finanz und Wirtschaft (FuW), Sylvia Walter, inter­view with Simon Lutz, Chief Invest­ment Officer of Tareno AG, January 20, 2026.

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