2026 – A promi­sing vintage

Three global drivers for 2026

We are looking ahead to 2026 with well-founded confi­dence. Our stance is based on three key factors that speak in favor of robust and broad-based growth.

Expan­sive fiscal policy: Govern­ment spending remains at a high level globally and acts as a reliable economic driver. In the USA, a deficit of 8% is being targeted, flanked by compre­hen­sive deregu­la­tion measures. China is also supporting its domestic economy with a deficit of a similar magni­tude, while Germany is incre­a­sing its new debt to 4% in order to clear the invest­ment backlog in infras­truc­ture. While this spending policy raises legiti­mate questions about debt sustaina­bi­lity in the long term, it stimu­lates real economic growth notice­ably in the short term.

Looser monetary policy: improved liqui­dity and falling finan­cing costs are giving the economy a new boost. The Fed’s quanti­ta­tive tightening (QT) ended on December 1. Several interest rate cuts are the most likely scenario for 2026. As other central banks (UK, Canada, various emerging markets) are also loosening their reins, more capital is flowing into the markets again.

Techno­lo­gical progress: The expan­sion of compu­ting power for cloud and AI models conti­nues unabated. The decisive factor is the change in appli­ca­tion that is now begin­ning: We are moving away from simple chatbots towards autono­mous AI agents and physical AI (robotics, autono­mous driving). The monetization of these massive invest­ments will become visible in 2026 through tangible produc­ti­vity gains across the corpo­rate landscape.

Conse­quences for asset alloca­tion

This macroe­co­nomic environ­ment prima­rily favors real assets (equities, real estate, infras­truc­ture, gold, crypto assets). Global equity markets are likely to be driven by double-digit earnings growth. On the positive side, this growth – which has been heavily focused on techno­logy in recent years – will broaden in 2026. Segments that have stagnated in recent years will return to their former earnings strength.

We draw additional confi­dence from the valua­tions, which are moderate across the board and leave room for a “re-rating”. Many market segments are trading at or below their histo­rical average – such as health­care, small & mid caps and water. Despite a 25% techno­logy weighting, our portfo­lios currently have a price/earnings ratio (P/E) of less than 20, which is attrac­tively valued in view of the growth prospects.

However, we are cautious about bonds. High govern­ment spending ensures a constantly high supply of debt instru­ments, while struc­tu­rally higher infla­tion is likely to keep real yields low. This is where the risk of “finan­cial repres­sion” manifests itself: govern­ment inter­ven­tion to keep interest rates artifi­ci­ally low and steer savings into bonds so that the debt burden remains sustainable. This signi­fi­cantly reduces the tradi­tional protec­tive and yield function of govern­ment bonds in the portfolio.

Where are the oppor­tu­ni­ties?

We focus on market segments that are under­re­pre­sented in many portfo­lios and have an attrac­tive valua­tion:

Defen­sive sectors (health­care & consumer staples): There is a signi­fi­cant valua­tion discrepancy here compared to cyclical sectors. Uncer­tainty regar­ding regula­tory inter­ven­tion in drug prices has decreased, which is why we already made a forward-looking reallo­ca­tion in September. We expect this sector rotation to continue.

Small & mid caps: These have a signi­fi­cant valua­tion discount compared to large caps. The economic upturn and lower key interest rates are acting as a double driving force here.

Private markets & infras­truc­ture: As the money market becomes less attrac­tive with falling interest rates, investors are looking for alter­na­tive returns. We are focusing on infras­truc­ture (reliable, often infla­tion-linked cash flows) and private equity (access to innova­tions that are less available on the public stock markets).

Risks at a glance

Despite our optimism, we remain vigilant. We see the greatest risks in geopo­li­tical shocks and a return of infla­tion triggered by second-round effects of tariffs, which would limit the scope for interest rate cuts.

Publisher: Tareno AG, Garten­strasse 56, 4052 Basel, Tel. +41 61 282 28 00, info@​tareno.​ch, www.tareno.ch. We welcome feedback on our publi­ca­tion. This content is for infor­ma­tion purposes only. The publi­ca­tion contains neither legal nor invest­ment advice or invest­ment recom­men­da­tions and does not consti­tute an offer or solici­ta­tion to make an invest­ment.

Images / graphics: The graphics were produced by Tareno AG from public market data.