Tareno View January 2026

Growth remains, favorites rotate

The global economy has also proven to be remar­kably resilient in 2025. Despite all the prophe­cies of doom, the global economy is growing steadily, driven by a powerful triad of expan­sive fiscal policy, looser monetary policy and techno­lo­gical progress. This has been a blessing for investors: Equity markets and mixed mandates once again delivered pleasing returns. However, past success is no guarantee for the future. As the economy gains momentum and growth broadens, oppor­tu­ni­ties are shifting away from the celebrated winners of recent years towards neglected segments. In this issue, we shed light on why active selec­tion will be crucial in 2026 and how portfo­lios can be set up to be robust and generate strong returns in diffe­rent scena­rios.

Macroe­co­nomic environ­ment: fuel for the global economy

Although the geopo­li­tical and economic policy shifts emana­ting from the USA in 2025 kept the world on tenter­hooks, they hardly left a mark on the hard currency of global growth. Adjusted for infla­tion, the global economy grew by a solid 3%, as in previous years. For the current year, the signs are not only pointing to a conti­nua­tion, but to an accele­ra­tion. Three powerful forces are working in unison here:

Expan­sio­nary fiscal policy as a perma­nent condi­tion

Govern­ment spending remains at an excep­tio­nally high level globally. In the USA, tax breaks and industrial policy are causing a deficit of around 8%. At the same time, deregu­la­tion and a leaner state apparatus should mobilize private invest­ment and free up produc­ti­vity. Europe is follo­wing with a time lag, but with incre­a­sing deter­mi­na­tion. The German invest­ment program in parti­cular is now taking effect and provi­ding impetus in the areas of armaments, energy and infras­truc­ture. China completes the picture as the third major player. With a deficit also close to 8%, Beijing is stabi­li­zing the domestic economy and counter­ac­ting defla­tio­nary tenden­cies. Taken together, these fiscal forces form a robust founda­tion for sustained global growth of around 3%.

Monetary policy under fiscal pressure

In view of this major fiscal situa­tion, a restric­tive monetary policy would tradi­tio­nally be appro­priate in order to avoid overhea­ting. However, the reality of high debt levels dictates a diffe­rent logic: central banks are under pressure to keep finan­cing costs low. Even though the majority of interest rate cuts may be behind us, the compass of most central banks conti­nues to point in the direc­tion of easing. In addition to cutting interest rates, the US Federal Reserve recently switched from withdra­wing liqui­dity to injec­ting it. Monetary policy is thus once again becoming an ally of growth and the capital markets.

Techno­logy as a produc­ti­vity turbo

Around a third of US growth in the past year is directly attri­bu­table to invest­ments in AI infras­truc­ture. Even higher budgets are available for 2026, and industry experts are foreca­sting a multi­pli­ca­tion of compu­ting capaci­ties in the coming years. However, the decisive factor is when these invest­ments will pay off. We are seeing compa­nies successfully integra­ting AI in more and more sectors. Produc­ti­vity gains are already measurable, parti­cu­larly in software develo­p­ment, industrial automa­tion and biotech­no­logy. 2026 is likely to be the year in which these effects are broadly reflected in company profits and overall economic produc­ti­vity for the first time.

Market commen­tary: The renais­sance of market breadth

In 2025, the world equity index recorded double-digit growth for the third year in a row. Encou­ra­gingly, mixed mandates also enjoyed above-average gains. The relative strength of Europe compared to the USA, reinforced by the depre­cia­tion of the US dollar, was remar­kable.