Tareno View July 2026

AI in the Portfolio: Seizing Oppor­tu­ni­ties, Managing Risks

Artifi­cial intel­li­gence has long been more than just a techno­lo­gical topic. It has become one of the most important drivers of growth in the global economy and a dominant factor in the finan­cial markets. But the greater its influence becomes, the more important it is to manage the associated portfolio risks. For investors, this is a balan­cing act: Those who do not invest are missing out on a rare struc­tural oppor­tu­nity. Those who blindly follow the index are accep­ting growing concen­tra­tion risks. The AI compo­nent of a portfolio is incre­a­singly becoming a central issue in strategic asset alloca­tion. That is why, in this Tareno View, we take a close look at the impact of AI on the economy and markets, as well as the right positio­ning within a portfolio.

Macroe­co­nomic environ­ment

A Shock-Resilient Economy

In recent years, the global economy has weathered more shocks than many economic models thought it could handle: supply chain disrup­tions, the war in Ukraine, a surge in infla­tion, record-high interest rates, banking stress, China’s real estate crisis, U.S. tariffs, and energy price shocks. Nevert­heless, the global economy has been growing at a rate of about 3% per year since 2022.

Even the most recent energy price shock surroun­ding the Strait of Hormuz failed to derail the global economy. Although the situa­tion remains fragile, the price of oil has fallen signi­fi­cantly again. Strategic reserves, alter­na­tive supply routes, increased produc­tion outside the directly affected region, and lower energy inten­sity are keeping the impact in check.

Where does this remar­kable resili­ence come from? From our perspec­tive, there are two struc­tural tailwinds at play—ones we have been empha­si­zing for some time—that have given us the confi­dence to remain invested within our respec­tive risk profiles during market pullbacks.

First, the govern­ment remains a powerful pillar of economic growth. The U.S., China, and Europe are supporting their economies—amid compe­ti­tion among the major blocs—through invest­ment programs, tax breaks, industrial policy, and defense spending. In the U.S., fiscal policy has recently accounted for nearly half of the contri­bu­tion to growth. This is not a clean founda­tion, but it is an effec­tive one.

Second, the multi-year expan­sion of AI is fueling an invest­ment cycle of historic propor­tions. The rising demand for AI appli­ca­tions is leading to exten­sive invest­ments in data centers, semicon­duc­tors, power grids, and software. As a result, AI has long been a driver of the real economy, making a tangible contri­bu­tion to economic growth.

Fiscal policy and AI, the pillars of growth, will remain intact for the foreseeable future and thus continue to provide a solid founda­tion for global growth. At the same time, two headwinds from recent months are subsi­ding: the oil price shock and the impact of U.S. tariffs. This improves the outlook for consu­mers and businesses in the second half of the year.

Market commen­tary

AI dominates

The two drivers of growth in the real economy—government spending and AI expansion—are incre­a­singly shaping the finan­cial markets as well. In the past quarter, the AI sector was once again respon­sible for a large portion of global stock market gains.

Since AI-related compa­nies have signi­fi­cantly outper­formed the broader market in recent years, their share of the total market has risen from about a quarter to nearly half. This trend is parti­cu­larly prono­unced in the semicon­ductor and hardware sectors. The semicon­ductor segment alone now accounts for about 15% of the global index. This has signi­fi­cant impli­ca­tions for investors.

First, concen­tra­tion risk is rising. Many index-tracking portfo­lios today are more depen­dent on AI, techno­logy, and the U.S. than it appears at first glance. What is marketed as broad global diver­si­fi­ca­tion often contains a concen­trated bet on just a few business models. Second, volati­lity is incre­a­sing. When capital flows in semicon­duc­tors and AI infras­truc­ture shift, it’s not just a basket of sectors that moves—it’s the entire market. This makes the market more vulnerable to valua­tion debates, earnings disap­point­ments, and delays in reali­zing AI’s produc­ti­vity poten­tial.

Market Leader­ship in a Time of Change

A counter­trend began in early June. Capital has flowed out of the most obvious winners of the AI infras­truc­ture expan­sion into other market sectors, and the techno­logy sector—particularly the overheated semicon­ductor industry—has entered a conso­li­da­tion phase. At the same time, health­care, industrials, finan­cials, and consumer staples have gained relative strength. We see a good chance that this broader market trend will continue.

Future develo­p­ments will depend heavily on adjust­ments to earnings expec­ta­tions. Growth in the techno­logy sector is likely to remain strong, but the base effect will pose a greater chall­enge. In the rest of the market, however, earnings are expected to regain momentum.

This also puts the Swiss stock market back in the spotlight. The SMI—which includes Nestlé, Novartis, and Roche—has recently benefited from a return to defen­sive, high-quality stocks and was among the stron­gest-performing indices in June.

Invest­ment policy

Dosing AI

Artifi­cial intel­li­gence will profoundly trans­form the economy and society. The multi-year expan­sion of AI infras­truc­ture repres­ents an invest­ment oppor­tu­nity of the kind that arises only once every few decades. We want to remain part of this trend. At the same time, with every further rise in prices, this sector’s influence on the overall market grows. There­fore, the key question is not whether AI belongs in a portfolio. The key question is how much AI a portfolio should contain.

Step 1: Assess Risks

How much AI is in the portfolio? This question is more diffi­cult than it sounds. AI is not a clearly defined sector. Semicon­duc­tors, hardware, software, the cloud, digital platforms, and power infras­truc­ture are all part of the value chain. Accor­ding to a broad defini­tion and our own calcu­la­tions, AI and techno­logy-related stocks in the MSCI ACWI now account for about 46% of the stock market. In our Classic portfo­lios, this weighting is about one-third of the equity holdings—and is thus delibera­tely lower.

We consider this weighting to be reasonable. It allows us to parti­ci­pate in the long-term AI trend without making the portfolio entirely depen­dent on the future course of a single invest­ment wave.

Step 2: Manage Risks

Over the past two months, we have taken profits on several occasions as AI-related stocks have risen sharply and have actively reduced our alloca­tion. In such market phases, we view rebalan­cing not as an admini­stra­tive task, but as a key factor for success. It forces us to maintain disci­pline when euphoria is at its peak.

Step 3: Diver­sify Risks

In addition to regular rebalan­cing, we delibera­tely focus on invest­ments that do not move exclu­si­vely in step with the AI invest­ment cycle. At the asset alloca­tion level, these include core infras­truc­ture, short-term bonds, gold, and crypto­cur­ren­cies. Within our equity alloca­tion, we also favor defen­sive sectors, water, small-cap stocks, and markets with lower AI concen­tra­tion, such as Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

The compo­si­tion within the techno­logy sector is also important. The major indices are heavily dominated by semicon­duc­tors and hardware. We have delibera­tely chosen a broader alloca­tion. This allows the portfolio to continue benefiting from techno­lo­gical change without taking on exces­sive exposure to any single stock.

Conclu­sion

Artifi­cial intel­li­gence remains a struc­tural growth driver in which we intend to maintain a long-term stake. However, as its importance to the economy and finan­cial markets grows, so does the respon­si­bi­lity to manage and calibrate this exposure in a targeted manner.

Our approach: To capita­lize on long-term poten­tial, disci­pline-driven correc­tion of market excesses, and struc­tu­ring portfo­lios so that they remain robust even as market leader­ship shifts.