Recognize oppor­tu­ni­ties in noise

Despite concerns about the erratic US trade policy and the growing US national debt, the stock markets are approa­ching new highs. Investors are well advised not to be guided by short-term headlines, but to make targeted invest­ments in long-term growth areas. The best oppor­tu­ni­ties often arise in market noise – for example in infras­truc­ture invest­ments that benefit from several struc­tural trends and at the same time bring stabi­lity and diver­si­fi­ca­tion to the portfolio.

New highs

Two months after the US presi­dent’s tariff hammer, it is clear that the shock has been digested. The global stock markets have not only stabi­lized, but are already back at all-time highs.

This may seem surpri­sing at first glance, as the causes of the slump two months ago are still unresolved.

Where does the optimism of investors come from?

Firstly, it is clear that even a US presi­dent cannot act without limits: The checks and balances of the judiciary, parlia­ment, the electo­rate – and not least the capital markets – are having an effect.

Secondly, the economic impact of US import tariffs averaging 15 percent has so far been limited. Many compa­nies and consu­mers have adjusted to this. So far, the economy has also proved remar­kably robust in the face of the numerous uncer­tain­ties.

Thirdly, the global decline in infla­tio­nary pressure is giving central banks more leeway to respond to economic risks with monetary policy.

Our recom­men­da­tion from previous months remains unchanged in June: Stay invested and focus your invest­ment strategy on long-term growth areas.

Looking ahead through uncer­tainty

The short-term risks are offset by attrac­tive oppor­tu­ni­ties: Interest rate cuts, struc­tural produc­ti­vity gains from AI and moderate valua­tions continue to offer poten­tial for respec­table returns. Rather than being tempted by the daily noise into hectic reallo­ca­tions, we see signi­fi­cantly more oppor­tu­ni­ties for success in recogni­zing attrac­tive long-term invest­ment themes.

One theme that is being driven by several megatrends – digita­lization, urbanization, climate change and deglo­ba­lization – is infras­truc­ture. In a world full of geopo­li­tical tensions, infla­tion risks and struc­tural upheaval, it stands for stabi­lity and predic­table returns.

Infras­truc­ture: Stabi­lity in a changing world

Whether electri­city grids, digital networks, trans­port routes or water supply – infras­truc­ture forms the backbone of our everyday lives and our economy. The income from such invest­ments is often protected against infla­tion, secured over the long term and largely indepen­dent of economic cycles. For investors, this offers attrac­tive oppor­tu­ni­ties to combine stable current income with low volati­lity.

In addition, far-reaching changes are driving up demand for infras­truc­ture world­wide: the expan­sion of renewable energies, digita­lization, the invest­ment backlog in aging networks and the reloca­tion of critical produc­tion capaci­ties will lead to an enormous need for capital in the coming years – and thus to attrac­tive oppor­tu­ni­ties for returns.

Infras­truc­ture: oppor­tu­ni­ties in public and private markets

In order to exploit the long-term poten­tial, we invest both in listed compa­nies with an infras­truc­ture character and in unlisted invest­ments:

• Georg Fischer: Supplier of modern water and gas supply infras­truc­ture.
• Holcim: Leading building materials group with a central role in sustainable infras­truc­ture develo­p­ment (green building, cement recycling).
• Sika: Specialty chemicals company with innova­tive solutions for global infras­truc­ture projects.
• Swisscom: Backbone of digital infras­truc­ture in Switz­er­land.
• Veolia: Global provider of water, waste and energy manage­ment.
• Swiss Life Privado Infras­truc­ture ELTIF: Broadly diver­si­fied fund with a focus on European direct invest­ments, inclu­ding in data centers, toll roads and energy supply.

Quelle: Asset Management Tareno

Publisher: Tareno AG, Garten­strasse 56, 4052 Basel, Tel. +41 61 282 28 00, info@​tareno.​ch, www.tareno.ch. We welcome feedback on our publi­ca­tion. This content is for infor­ma­tion purposes only. The publi­ca­tion contains neither legal nor invest­ment advice or invest­ment recom­men­da­tions and does not consti­tute an offer or solici­ta­tion to make an invest­ment.

Images / graphics: The graphics were produced by Tareno AG from public market data.